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Home > Report > Korea Report |
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Korea Report - July 2006 |
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Author : Hwang & Co
Date : 06-08-11 09:01
Hit : 39407
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Topics.
-Korea and USA held second round FTA with little progress. -Labor unions opt to transit to industrial unionism. -NK launched missiles, defying international warning. -SKorean government put into the awkward position between NK and surounding countries. -NK cut all dialogue with SKorea after South linked the aid with missiles and nuclear program. -Korea¡¯s current account surplus shrunk substantially. -Korean oil companies actively acquire the stake in foreign oil fields. -Dubai oil broke $70 per barrel barrier. -Korean Chaebols keep circular intra-group share holding practice to control the conglomerate with little share. -Chung In-young, honorary chairman of Halla Group, died at 86. -Labor union of HMC and POSCO caused heavy damage to the companies by the strikes. -Korean shipbuilders showed off the most brilliant performance in their history in June-July. -Korean yard increasingly face the challenge from China. -SK Shipping ordered VLCC¡¯s and LR2 tankers.
GOVERNMENT AND SOCIETY
Korea and USA held the second round of the official FTA talks in Seoul. They made significant progress in the area of labor by finding common ground on handling labor disputes. But there were many differences of opinion to overcome. Korea wants a reduction in textile tariffs, which currently average 8.9%, while Washington is requesting strict textile origin standards and application of special safeguard measures. In the area of investment, Korea has reportedly requested special safeguard measures, aimed at preventing a trade imbalance, in case the country faces a financial crisis. Concerning automobiles, US negotiators continued to seek a reformation of the current tax system, which is based on engine displacement. The talks ended a day earlier than scheduled, after they failed to make any progress in the area of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. Seoul has been carrying forward the long-waited reform plan of the pharmaceutical industry, which aims to apply insurance coverage to only the most effective drugs in terms of price and efficacy, which will drastically bring down the nation's medical insurance burden. But the USA harshly opposed the scheme, claiming that some costly American drugs may lose insurance benefits due to the new policy. Former Finance Minister Han Duck-soo was appointed to head a panel of experts created by the government to support the movement for forging a FTA with USA, to take charge of advertising the benefits of the FTA, seek public opinion and try to calm widespread jitters over the proposed FTA.
The presidential office announced a Cabinet shake-up involving the replacement of 3 Cabinet ministers and the chief policy secretary of Cheong Wa Dae. The finance minister has been offered to Kwon O-kyu, 54, Roh's right-hand man, currently serving as the chief secretary on national policy. Kwon's predecessor Kim Byong-joon, 52, was nominated as education minister. Opposition GNP complained that the president handed top Cabinet posts to the very people who inflicted pain with their broken economic policies. The Democratic Party as well as the left-leaning Democratic Labor Party lambasted the reshuffling, accusing the administration of making a biased personnel decision by choosing close aides. Even many Uri members remain uneasy with the nominees.
The main opposition Grand National Party ousted chief of its Gyeonggi Province who were found to have played golf with local businessmen in Gangwon Province, an area that was heavily damaged by the recent rainfalls, causing the GNP's approval rating dipped by 10%. Democratic Party candidate Chough Soon-hyung, the leader of the party when it led impeachment of President Roh, made a dramatic victory in the by-election in Seongbuk-eul, Seoul, giving the DP the upper hand in a realignment of political forces ahead of next year's presidential election. The DP fell from being the nation's ruling party to a minuscule party in 2003 after impeachment movement. The GNP swept 3 seats and Uri won none.
As Korean government sent a survey ship to study sea currents, temperatures and saline density in waters near Korea-controlled Dokdo islets, Korean coastguard remained on alert and increased patrols near the islets in the East Sea. Korea has been conducting similar surveys since 2000. Japan, which claims its sovereignty over Dokdo which it calls Takeshima, warned that it would respond with "appropriate actions." Japan and Korea were on the verge of a maritime clash when Japan set out to conduct a marine survey in the same waters in April. Seoul and Tokyo reached a last-minute agreement to delay the survey and held maritime talks instead. Japan's sovereignty claim over the small group of rocky islets began after colonized the Korean Peninsula during 1910-1945. Korea has been controlling the islets since they were returned home at the end of World War II.
As China's rampant piracy of foreign brands, ranging from newly released movies to Ferrari, grows into a major threat to the bottom lines of multinationals. The piracy industry seems to grow further under the protection of local authorities. Worldwide sales of counterfeit products is reported to run as high as $650 bil a year, most of which are produced across China. Korea estimated that the fake industry incurred more than $17 bil in losses to exporters last year alone, accounting for 6% of annual exports, and nearly 40% of Korean companies have suffered revenue damages due to counterfeits.
The satellite Arirang-2 was successfully launched at the base in Russia. Around 70% of the technology applied in Arirang-2¡¯s body and 50% of the camera technology are domestic. It will be used for high accuracy photographing, transmission, geographical monitoring of Korean Peninsula, national information system and exploration of natural resources. Korea will have 9 satellites in total.
8 Korean workers, along with 9 Indonesians, 5 Vietnamese and 3 Chinese, were released after nearly 4 months of captivity in Somalia. The workers were crewmembers of the 361-ton tuna fishing boat that was hijacked by pirates in the sea off Somalia on April 5. The Associated Press in Somalia reported that more than $800,000 was paid for the ransom. The labor unions of many industrial sectors are likely to follow the transition to industrial unionism, marking a new era for the country's labor-management relations. The 1997 revision of the Korean labor relations law allowed unions of individual workplaces to vote for transition to industrial unionism. Medical, freight, university, financial and media workers shifted from trade federations to industrial unions. The management circle fear that the multiple bargaining system would increase time and costs. However, the labor unions of the nation's major automakers announced they will stick to a single industrial union sy7stem for more leverage in bargaining and strike situations. The number of Korean female workers reached a record high of 9.9 mil in June, hit a new high of 42.2% and climbing over 2% on year, compared to an 1.1% increase in the overall number of employees. Aged workers have become the nation's major workforce as population growth rapidly slows down and young job seekers suffer setbacks in the job market. The people aged 50 or over accounted for the largest proportion, 27.7% of the entire workforce in the second quarter of the year, reaching nearly 6.5 mil and outnumbering younger workers in their 30s and 40s for the first time ever.
NORTH KOREA AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
Bluntly defying repeated international warnings, NK test-fired 7-10 missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, Rodongs and several Scud missiles, within a few minutes of the liftoff of US space shuttle Discovery, as USA celebrated its Independence Day. Taepodong-2, at its full capacity, is believed to have a maximum range of 6,000 kilometers, enough to reach the US west coast. NK released its official acknowledgement of the missile test launch, saying "This successful missile launch was part of the military training by and large carried out by our military for the fortification of the self-defense power" and "We will continue to carry out missile launch drills. If anyone is to criticize and attempt to pressure us, we will be left with no choice but to take sterner physical action in a different form."
UN Security Council adopted a resolution unanimously to impose limited sanctions on NK for its missile tests and demanded the North suspend its ballistic missile program. The resolution passed bans all UN member states from selling material or technology for missiles or weapons of mass destruction to NK and it bans all countries from receiving missiles, banned weapons or technology from Pyongyang. US Ambassador John Bolton warned that Pyongyang's failure to comply could lead to further council action. SKorea urged the North to listen to UN's message, reinstate a moratorium on missile launches and rejoin the six-nation talks. NK's UN Ambassador accused the council of "unjustifiable and gangster-like" action aimed at isolating his country, stressing that NK has a legal right to test missiles and said it would be "foolish" to give advance warning because USA and DPRK are still technically at war. Japan, USA and Britain wanted a tough statement, while Russia and China favored weaker language.
Hours after NK fired missiles, Japan banned entry of a NK's Mangyongbong-92 ferry, which is the main link between the countries, for 6 months and announced to impose economic sanctions against NK. NK has warned the sanctions would be a declaration of war. US Senate unanimously passed legislation that would slap sanctions on foreign businesses or individuals trafficking with NKorean regime in missile or weapons of mass destruction technology. US government has been stepping up pressure on the North by investigating its alleged money counterfeiting and is looking at ways to apply more pressure. Washington accused Iranian officials of being present at NK's latest missile launches, escalating US suspicions of military cooperation between Iran and Pyongyang.
Ties between 2 Koreas received a stunning blow and SKorea is put in the delicate position between NK and surrounding countries after NK¡¯s missile launching. SKorean Unification Minister condemned NK for disbanding dialogue with the rest of the world by launching missiles, and urged its immediate return to six-party talks. On the other hand, he took a swing at the international community, not to try and solve the NKorean crisis "only through pressure and sanctions." He has taken a shot at USA, saying that additional sanctions against NK were undesirable creating further tension on the peninsula. He stressed that it is most important to bring NK back to the negotiating table and not give it more time to further develop any weapons. He also caused an uproar after calling the US policies "China failed, we failed, but the US policies were the biggest failure, because Washington, despite its hawkish stance, failed to prevent Pyongyang's missile launch¡±. President Roh made remarks to support Unification Minister inviting another uproar. President Roh slammed Japan for its provocative rhetoric suggesting possible pre-emptive strikes on NK in the wake of the latest missile crisis, saying that Japan's aggressive attitude is likely to further escalate tension in Northeast Asia. Foreign Minister Ban regretted that Tokyo had failed to hold advance consultations with Seoul in pushing for a tough UN resolution against NK that would technically authorize the use of military force against the North. Japan's draft resolution was watered down later to exclude Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
2 Koreas met in Busan to hold the 19th ministerial talks. SKorea strongly lambasted the North for firing missiles and insisted that the only way to solve the crisis was for NK to return to six-party talks on its nuclear program. The ministerial talks ended earlier than scheduled as SKorea refused to discuss aid packages unless the North offered a solution to the missile crisis. NK had requested 500,000 tons of rice at the start of the negotiation. NK announced it would call off separated-family reunions in retaliation against SKorea's refusal to discuss rice and fertilizer aid. For the worse, NK has chosen to halt all inter-Korean communication. Pyongyang recently withdrew all representatives working at the consultation office in the border town of Gaeseong.
US nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill, who expressed disappointment on the news that China made no progress in its diplomatic efforts toward NK, raised five-way talks, excluding NK, as a possible alternative to the six-party talks. Hill suggested five-way talks may be the only way for the parties to cope with the North if the unpredictable Kim Jong-il regime continues to hold out. USA had suggested that 5 countries gather first to discuss how to bring NK back to the table. Seoul emphasized that the five-way talks will be a negotiation that leaves the door open for the North to return, rather than the door closed on NK.
ECONOMY AND POLICY
The government still expects to achieve 5% economic growth this year, despite surging oil prices. The nation's GDP expanded 5.3% in second quarter on year, while rising 0.8% from first quarter, the lowest quarterly growth in more than a year. BOK confirmed its bullish stance, saying "The economy is and will remain on the recovery track, although it will see a soft patch in the second half".
Korea¡¯s exports totaled $26.1 bil in July, up 12.4% on year, the slowest pace in 3 months, as labor strikes hampered production of cars and demand for liquid-crystal display panels dropped. The country, however, has achieved the sixth straight month of double-digit export growth. The car shipments dropped 31.7% and exports of LCD monitors declined 25.3% in July on year. Imports rose 18.4% in July on year to $25.5 bil, lowering the trade surplus to $670 mil from $1.73 bil in July 2005. Korea¡¯s exports of information technology products amounted to US$8.64 bil in July, up 3.5% on year, boosted by robust sales of semiconductors, flat panels and digital TVs. IT imports grew 7.6% to $4.77 bil during the period, bringing the nation¡¯s monthly IT trade surplus to $3.87 bil. Exports account for about 40% of the national economy. The KWon has gained more than 5% against USDollar this year, and Korea's benchmark Dubai crude oil has climbed about 25%. The nation is the world's fourth-largest oil importer.
The Bank of Korea resets its forecast on the country's current account surplus from $16 bil set at the beginning of 2006 to shrink to $4 bil for this year. A deficit would hurl Korean economy back into the red in less than 10 years, since it recovered from the 1998 currency crisis. Korea posted a current account deficit of $267.6 mil in the first half of this year, for the first deficit in 9 years, as exports cooled and a service account shortfall widened. BOK officials predicted that the current account deficit will worsen in July because more Koreans travel abroad during summer holidays and the increasing traveling expenses widen the deficit in the service account. Foreign direct investment in Korea totaled $4.91 bil in the first half of the year, up 5.9% on year. $1.19 bil was made in the manufacturing sector, up 42.9%, and the remaining $3.63 bil was in service and other industries, down 4.5%.
Local banks raked in record net profits in the first half of fiscal year 2006 thanks to increased lending and lower bad-loan provisions. The combined net earnings of 18 lenders swelled to KW8.874 tril, up 23.4% on year. ¡°The Banker¡± magazine included 11 local banks in the 1000 biggest banks in the world as of end 2005. Kookmin Bank jumped to 51st with the assets of $11.57 bil from 76th in 2004, Woori Bank becomes 87th from 104th and Shinhan Holding 88th from 120th, while Citi Group kept No 1 post for 8 consecutive years with $79.4 bil. Seoul Securities¡¯s biggest shareholder and chief executive Thomas Kang sold a 4.9% stake to Eugene Corp, a construction materials provider, ending a months-long tug-of-war over managerial control. The share transactions have helped Eugene increase its stake to 9.85%. Due to a relatively weak ownership structure with no single dominant shareholder, the brokerage has been a major target for mergers and acquisitions since last year, when US financier George Soros sold the majority stake of 27.6% acquired in 1999.
Korea National Oil Corp, the nation's largest oil developer, took over an oil sands mine in Canada in an efforts to diversify Korea's oil supply and secure a more stable crude oil reserve. The state-run company has signed a $270 mil deal to buy the entire stake of the Blackgold Mine in Alberta from Newmont Mining Corp, expecting to produce 35,000 barrels per day for the next 25 years, in half billion dollars in revenue every year. KNOC plans to begin building production facilities in 2008, aiming to start extracting crude oil from 2010. Korean consortium, consisting of KNOC and LG Corp, explored new in-land oil field with expected reserve of 20 mil barrel in Aktobe Field in Kazhakstan, with 50% stake. Production starts from 2007 KOGAS acquired 2.88% share in YLNG of Yemen from Hyundai Corp, who has held 5.9% stake, increasing its stake from 6% to 8.88%. Hyundai Corp will have, in return, performance guarantee for its portion of LNG exploration project from KOGAS. GS Caltex plans to import crude oils which are at least 10% of its own requirement of 650,000 barrels a day from its own supplies from 2010. It has secured 15% stake in Cambodia, 4% in West Kamchaka and 30% in Thailand oil fields.
Dubai crude price broke $70 barrier first time in the history and repeated renewal of record high to $71.52 per barrel, after NK¡¯s missiles launch, Israel¡¯s air raids to Lebanon and Nigerian rebel¡¯s destruction of oil pipelines. The price of Dubai crude has risen almost 29% this year. Korea Energy Research Institute analyzed the scenario on high oil price. If Dubai oil goes to $75 per barrel, GDP growth will be lowered by 0.78% and consumers¡¯ price index raised by 0.2%. If it jumps above $76 level, the profit of domestic enterprises will be dropped by 10%.
CHAEBOL
Fair Trade Commission claimed that the owners of Korea's conglomerates are still opting to employ circular intra-group shareholding practices to run a large numbers of affiliates with little or no stake ownership with little progress in reforming their ownership structure. Despite the relatively weak direct hold on their businesses, chaebol owners use cross-shareholding schemes between affiliates to raise the level of their stakes to 43.80%. Among the 41 family-owned chaebol, owners and their immediate family members held a mere average of 5.04% of all issued shares. Those firms are subject to restrictions on mutual investment and loan guarantees. Chung In-young, the brother of Hyundai Group founder, Chung Ju-young, died at 86. He was, Hyundai Construction¡¯s president for 1961-1976, then became the chairman of Halla Group consisting of construction, heavy industry, cement, paper mills and Mando machineries.
Samsung Electronics plans to spend $120 mil, increasing total cumulative investment to $550 mil, in the to expand its semiconductor facility in eastern Chinese city of Suzhou this year to meet rising demand. SEC, the world's largest chip exporter, posted its net income for the second quarter down 11% on year to KW1.5 tril, on sales of KW14.1 tril from KW13.6 tril. It grappled with the stronger KWon against the USDollar, surging oil prices, and a seasonal downturn in the demand for high-tech gadgets in the second quarter. SEC maintained its top spot worldwide in liquid crystal display sales, posting $3.65 bil in global LCD sales in first quarter, up 9% on quarter. The company maintained the top spot for the 14th straight month. ¡°The Wired¡± magazine ranked SEC third in its ¡°The Wired 40¡± in the world, citing SEC¡¯s excellence of design, timely development of new product and investment to R&D. Google and Apple were ranked first and second, Toyotal 7th, GE 8th, Intel 24th and MS 36th. BP sold its 47.1% stake in Samsung Petrochemical, withdrawing from its TPA project. Instead it jointly invested with China¡¯s Phuwha Group for a new TPA business in Zhuhai in China with the annual output of 900,000 ton.
LG Electronics, the country's second-largest electronics maker, has won an appeals court ruling. The US Appeals Court for the Federal Circuits sided with LGE in computer patent infringement suits against 3 Taiwanese PC makers, Quanta, Compal and FIC." The ruling is expected to allow LG to bolster its position in PC patent disputes, thereby reaping greater royalty payments with manufacturers in overseas markets. LG has over 2,000 patents in the field of computer technology. In 2000, Intel obtained a license to use all the PC patents of LG through a patent license agreement.
The overseas plant orders clinched by Korean builders totaled $10.8 bil during the first half of this year, up 35% on year, as the oil-producing countries use their extra petrodollars to upgrade their industrial infrastructure. Orders for ports and related marine facilities jumped 56% on year, while those for petrochemicals rose 22%, and industrial facility orders leaped 723%. It is forecasted that Korea will secure $20 bil worth of plant construction orders from overseas for this entire year. Ssangyong Engineering and Construction has won a $130 mil deal with Plaza Indonesia Realty to build an extension of Plaza Indonesia, a luxury office and apartment complexes and shopping mall in Jakarta. GS Engineering & Construction and LG Int Corp won the contract to build $1.2 bil chemical factory in Oman for Aromatic Oman LLC to produce about 1.2 mil tons of paraxylene and benzene a year. The factory will be completed in 37 months.
Hyundai Motor's union repeated its habitual annual strike. HMC proposed a 4.4% basic wage rise, which falls far short of the labor union's 9.1% increase demand. Management also stuck to the proposal of 100% performance-based incentive, against 300% in 2005. HMC said it had no choice but to offer a lower increase, citing that the stronger KWon, higher oil prices and raw materials are posing greater risks for the company. HMC union at last agreed on a 5.1% increase of base pay and other conditions, to end a month of partial strikes that cost HMC about KW1.3 tril in lost production. About 2,500 workers have laid siege to the head office of POSCO, protesting its interference over wage disputes between the unions and their companies, which are subcontracted to the steelmaker. The protesters confronted riot police by spraying them with boiling water and erecting barricades, blocking stairways to the upper floors. Police detained 115 people involved in illegal strikes, and was seeking arrest warrants for 17 union leaders for disrupting. The eight-day sit-in ended as striking workers withdrew, only in a few hours after the presidential office issued a stern warning. POSCO said the strike cost over KW200 bil and the union would be asked to compensate.
Hyundai Group sold its own 12.07% share in Hyundai Elevator, de facto holding company of Hyundai Group, to Hyundai Logistic and 18.7% stake in Hyundai Logistic to HMM, securing the cash of KW87.6 bil. Since being assured of the stable management right of HMM, they are concentrating on the acquisition Hyundai Construction with the sufficient cash in hands.
Kumho Tire began production at its newly built $210 mil plant, capable of churning out 5.25 mil tires annually in Tianjin. It will tap the local tire market for new automobiles while more than half of the volume will be exported overseas.
MONETARY AND ECONOMIC INDICES
Korea¡¯s stock price index has been stable in the range of 1233-1300. While Oil prices hit the records, NK launched missiles, US stock market kept sluggish and continuous foreign investors¡¯ continued selling, local investors maintained their confidence in the market. It has once fly over 1300 level, but it seems needed more energy to go through the barrier. Kwon started at 944 against a USDollar, kept 950 level to end the month at 955. The Foreign Reserves climbed by $1.36 bil to $225.7 bil in July, thanks to the increased value of Korea¡¯s overseas investment. BOK decided to leave the benchmark interest rate for July at 4.25%. Bank of Japan decided to raise its bench mark call rate by 0.25%, as the first time in 64 month. The yield on 3 years corporate bond stayed in the box of 5.12-5.20% through out the month. Core consumer prices rose 2.2% in June on year.
SHIPBUILDING AND SHIPPING
Korean yards showed off the most brilliant performance in their history in the first half of this year. They secured new building orders of 9.61 mil CGT, up 33.4% on year, constructed the vessels of 5.74 mil CGT, up 17.5%, on the order book with 40 mil CGT backlog, 12.1% rise on year. Global new building orders in the same period reached 21.5 mil CGT, 1.7% up, construction 12 mil CGT, 9.8% up, with the order backlog of 113.6 mil CGT, 8.2% up on year. All of the figures, Korea and China jumped, while Japan and Europe dropped. Korean shipbuilders are increasingly facing the challenge from Chinese yards. Hudong-Zhonghua began building a self-designed 8,530 TEU super container carrier, making China the fourth country in building such sophisticated ships after Korea, Japan and Denmark Shanghai Waigaoqiao recently entered the VLCC market, following Dalian, NACKS and Bohai. China already has 9 shipyards with the capacity to build VLCC size ships, expecting to increase to 17 by 2015, whereas only 15 such size docks exist in Korea. Dalian emerged as the world's fifth-largest yard in order backlog with 2.84 mil CGT as of end June, after merging Dalian and New Dalian into one, pushing Samho, STX and Hanjin to 6th, 7th and 8th respectively, and Waigaojiao was ranked as the 10th largest with 1.84 mil CGT. The global market share of Chinese yards jumped from 2.5% in 1990 to 16.6% last year.
HHI secured orders from Kristen Navigation for 3 x 159K tanker, Oltmann 1 x 6500 teu, SK Shipping 2 x 318K VLCC and Gungen Denizcilik 2+1 x 153K tanker. HHI has taken in a record number of orders, securing a total of 31 vessels worth $3.5 bil in the period of June-July. The volume of orders surpassed its previous newbuilding record in March, in which it hauled in 24 ships worth $2.6 bil. Among 31 newbuildings, 27 are containerships, with the remaining 4 being suezmax tankers. HHI, together with Hyundai Samho, has a total order backlog of 320 ships worth more than $30 bil. HMD got the orders from AP Moller-Maersk and Zodiac Maritime 3 each x 20.6K LPG, Polys Haji-Ioannou's World Tankers 2 x 46K IMO-III chemical carriers and Orix Maritime 2 x 46.6K pc.
DSME contracted with Knutsen OAS for 1 x 166K LNG, Bergesen 1 x 84K VLGC, Petroserv SA 1 x Semi-Submersible Drilling Rig and Transocean Inc 1 x Drillship. SHI bagged orders by OOCL for 4 x 4500 teu and European 1 x Drillship. SHI received orders for vessels and offshore projects valued at $8.9 bil this year, with a backlog of contracts worth about $18 bil. STX signed the LOI with Dubai-based ETA-Ascon Group for 2+2 x 51K MR PC and SCI 6 x 75K PC. STX agreed with MISC to build 3 x 115K tanker and Aktif Denizcilik 3 x 115K tanker, the first ever aframax size ship in its yard Hanjin Subic Bay committed to NSC for 1 x 4300 teu and CMA CGM 2 x 4300 teu container ships. Sungdong starts container ship new building, when it signs the contract with Danaos for 4 x 6500 teu. SLS Heavy Industry acquired 25.8% stake in ShinA yard from its 286 employees, increasing its stake to 34.2% to take management control. The employees gave up the ownership bur newly organized labor union. Daesun received the orders from Lantau Shipping for 2 x 1043 teu, INP from Forbes Doris Naess 4 x 13K chemical carrier, Nokbong with Donglim 1 x 8K chemical carrier, and KY Heavy Ind from Sekwang Shipping for 3 x 13K IMO II chemical carrier.
Hanjin Shipping plans to put ¡°Hanjin Bremerhavn¡±, the first of 8 sisters super speed 6500 teu container ship into Asia-Europe route from July 11. SK Shipping was reported to place orders for 2 x 319K VLCCs and 2 x 105K LR2 products tankers at HHI with deliveries for 7/12/ 2009 for VLCC and LR2 tankers for 10/11/2009. It has been the first order since it took 3 x VLCCs from SHI and 2 x MR tankers from HMD i
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